Crowley leads Tiffany by four points in new head-to-head poll of likely voters

A new poll of likely Wisconsin voters shows Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the Democratic nominee for governor, with a four percentage point lead over Republican nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, with a wider lead among independents.

Platform Communications, founded by Republican strategist Keith Gilkes, surveyed 500 likely general election voters on August 12 and 13, following Crowley’s surprising primary defeat of democratic socialist Francesca Hong. The poll was conducted by Gilkes, Platform’s executive chairman, and Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork.

Gilkes was former Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s chief political advisor, and Bjork has done work for Democrats including former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

The Badger Battleground poll results show that among all respondents, 48 percent said they would vote for Democrat Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, while 44 percent said they’d vote for Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany.

Crowley’s margin improved among those identifying as independents, with 42 percent choosing Crowley and 30 percent choosing Tiffany. Overall Crowley had the strongest support from Democrats and those with college degrees. Tiffany’s strongest showing came from Republicans and those with less than a college degree.

Platform Communications CEO Brian Reisinger, who ran communications for Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson’s 2016 campaign and Walker’s 2018 campaign, says with the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the findings suggest Wisconsin could be in for another nail-biter election.

“What we’re seeing here is a very tight general election matchup,” said Reisinger. “We’re seeing David Crowley coming out with a modest lead here at the beginning, which makes sense because he’s coming out of the primary victory where he’s getting a little bit of a bounce, and we’re seeing Tom Tiffany in a very very tight race with Crowley because this is an evenly divided state, and Tom Tiffany’s been running full steam.”

Crowley was also viewed more favorably than Tiffany among all respondents. The survey showed 43 percent reported favorable views of him, while 26 percent saw him unfavorably. Tiffany’s figures were underwater, with 43 percent of respondents saying they had an unfavorable view of the Republican and 38 percent having a favorable view.

Among independents, both men’s favorability ratings declined, though Crowley was still in net-positive territory, while Tiffany’s net-negative rating was three times worse than it was among all respondents.

Reisinger said a challenge for Crowley moving forward will be defining himself before Republicans do. And while Tiffany is more well known, he said, it’s partially due to attack ads from Democrats, which plays into his lower favorability rating.

A day after Crowley’s primary win, Tiffany’s campaign and the Democratic Governors Association announced dueling “seven-figure” ad campaigns. Tiffany’s attack ad labels Crowley as a “failed executive” and the DGA’s attack ad calls Tiffany a “pandering politician” hiding his “MAGA agenda.

Platform’s survey also asked voters which party they prefer in a generic Wisconsin Assembly ballot. Among all voters, 47 percent chose Democrats, while 44 percent chose Republicans. Among independents, 41 percent said they favor Democrats in a generic Assembly race and 32 percent favored Republicans.

Reisinger said the generic assembly ballot findings are a sign of the overall midterm environment, which historically favors the party not in the White House.

“So, what’s going on in the legislature? It’s going to be impacted by the top of the ticket with the governor’s race, it’s going to be impacted by what’s going on inside those districts, but it’s also, in a big way, going to be impacted by those national winds that are blowing,” said Reisinger.

An analysis by Marquette University Law School researcher John Johnson suggests the Assembly leans Republican ahead of the November election, but three tossup races in the 88th, 61st and 51st Assembly Districts mean either party could win control. Johnson rated the state Senate as leaning Democratic, partially because several Republican incumbents retired after easily beating back challenges in past reelection campaigns.