Poll: Amendment 3, the property tax cut for Florida homeowners, is 15 points short of home – Florida Politics
A constitutional amendment that would increase the homestead exemption to $250,000 in 2028 has 45% support among likely voters, 15 points short of the 60% it needs to pass, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics.
Another 30% oppose Amendment 3 and 25% are undecided with less than seven weeks until Election Day.
The survey of 913 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Republicans hold an advantage of more than 1.5 million registered voters over Democrats in Florida, according to the Division of Elections. The sample was weighted to match the active voter rolls: 42% Republican, 31% Democratic and 27% no party or minor party. Republicans made up 45% of respondents before weighting.
The same survey also tested the races for Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General.
Among voters who have made up their minds, the measure is just under 60%. Undecided voters would have to break roughly 3-to-2 in favor for it to pass.
Republicans support Amendment 3 63% to 17%, with 20% undecided. Gov. Ron DeSantis and gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds both back it.
Independent voters favor it 40% to 32%, with 28% undecided. Democrats oppose it 48% to 24%, with 29% undecided. St. Pete Polls reports its demographic breakdowns before weighting.
White voters support the amendment 46% to 30%, Hispanic voters 45% to 31% and Black voters 41% to 29%. Between 24% and 30% of each group is undecided.
Men support it 46% to 33% and women 44% to 28%. More women are undecided, 28% to 22%.
Voters under 30 oppose the amendment 42% to 36%. Those 30 to 49 support it 40% to 37%. Support is 50% to 28% among voters 50 to 69 and 46% to 22% among those 70 and older, nearly a third of whom are undecided.
Among the larger media markets, support runs from 49% in Miami and West Palm Beach to 37% in Orlando, where a third of voters are undecided. Tampa, the largest market in the survey, has 44% in favor and 30% opposed.
The Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police and the Florida Professional Firefighters oppose the amendment, and DeSantis has broken with them over it. Florida Realtors contributed $10 million to its Vote Yes on 3 political committee.
A University of North Florida poll in July found 61% support when the measure was described without its effect on local budgets and 45% once respondents were told it would cost local governments $11.86 billion in revenue. A James Madison Institute poll later that month had 76% of likely voters in favor before they heard about tradeoffs and 55% after.
St. Pete Polls conducted the survey Sept. 15-17 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 57% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 43%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Aug. 11. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender and media market to match Florida’s active voter population. Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The survey asked whether voters support or oppose “the state constitutional amendment 3 ballot question that would eliminate non-school property taxes on homesteaded primary residences.” The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
— Ed. note: This story was edited with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski
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