338 Sunday Update: Eby Gambles, Carney Rises, PQ Nears Victory – 338canada.ca

🍁Happy Sunday evening, dear 338Canada readers,
It was a jam-packed week, with plenty of action and new numbers from coast to coast. The writ dropped in British Columbia, barely two years after the NDP’s razor-thin 2024 majority victory. A much-anticipated Alberta poll from Janet Brown Opinion Research measured a significant drop for Danielle Smith’s UCP. And as Quebec enters the final stretch of its campaign, the PQ remains in the driver’s seat — albeit with about 30% of the vote.
Oh, and the Carney Liberals keep cruising light-years ahead of the CPC.
Let’s get right into it. Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.
Let’s start on the West Coast, where B.C. Premier David Eby decided to call a snap election, hoping to take advantage of the turmoil that has surrounded the opposition Conservatives in recent months.
Last weekend’s surprise resignation of B.C. Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay may have thrown a wrench into the NDP’s plans. The Conservative caucus quickly selected Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Lorne Doerkson as its new leader.
Early indications from the campaign trail suggest Doerkson may prove a less polarizing political figure than Findlay. Perhaps more importantly, he appears to have the support of the Conservative caucus — something Findlay struggled to maintain throughout her brief tenure as leader.
The first poll of the campaign, released last week by the Angus Reid Institute, suggested that the NDP advantage measured earlier this month had essentially vanished.
We at 338 HQ will follow the B.C. polls closely throughout the campaign and update the projection regularly until voting day on Oct. 24. Bookmark this page to follow along.
When Janet Brown Opinion Research (JBOR) publishes an Alberta poll, the province’s political class pays attention.
The latest from JBOR, released one month before Alberta’s referendum and one year before the next provincial election, measures a significant swing in public opinion away from Danielle Smith’s UCP and towards Naheed Nenshi’s NDP.
See the main tables from this poll here, and JBOR’s detailed report here.
The final week of Quebec’s election campaign kicks off tomorrow, and all available data point towards a PQ victory — even though the sovereigntist party hasn’t polled above the 30% mark since early August.
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