Poll: Jolly has 26-point lead over Donalds in Broward; county voters narrowly support property-tax amendment – Sun Sentinel
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Voters in Broward County — the biggest remaining Democratic bastion in Florida — overwhelmingly favor David Jolly in the governor’s race over Republican Byron Donalds.
Broward voters also favor the proposed state constitutional amendment to reduce property taxes on owner-occupied homes. When told about possible funding cuts to local services if the amendment passes, support drops.
The findings come from a poll of Broward voters conducted in late September by Bendixen & Amandi International and shared with the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The strategic communications consulting and public opinion research firm is aligned with Democrats and has done work for the Jolly campaign.
The poll found Jolly leading Donalds 2:1 in Broward County.
Jolly was favored by 52% of surveyed Broward voters, 26 percentage points ahead of Donalds, who was the choice of 26%.
Another 19% of the county’s voters said they were undecided, and 4% said someone else.
The county’s registered voters are 43.4% Democratic, 23.4% Republican and 30.7% no-party affiliation/independent, with 2.7% affiliated with minor parties.
No-party affiliation/independent voters favor Jolly over Donalds 43% to 20%, the poll found.
Democrats (80%) and Republicans (74%) overwhelmingly favor their party’s candidates.
If a Democrat has any hope of winning statewide, it requires a strong showing in Broward, the second most populous county in the state. It once was a powerhouse for statewide Democratic candidates but has lagged in recent elections.
“Broward is critically important to the statewide race,” said Anthony Williams, the special projects director at Bendixen & Amandi, and a Hollywood resident, adding that the Broward polling “shows the move in public sentiment that we’ve seen statewide and around the country.”
Jolly is doing better and Donalds is doing worse than the parties’ candidates performed in the 2022 gubernatorial election. Democratic nominee Charlie Crist received 57.4% of the vote in Broward, though he lost statewide, and incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis received 42%.
In 2018, Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum received 57.8% in Broward to 40.9% for DeSantis, who narrowly won the election statewide.
A statewide Change Research poll of likely voters conducted Sept. 25-27 showed the race effectively tied, with 48% for Jolly and 46% for Donalds. The organization is seen as leaning Democratic.
Still, independent analysts recently have reported movement in Jolly’s direction.
On Thursday, the widely respected Cook Political Report shifted the governor’s races in Florida and Texas, where Republicans have held the offices for decades, from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
“We are moving two more governors’ races in favor of Democrats in Florida and Texas, further expanding their political map as the party takes advantage of President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings in races up and down the ballot,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor, wrote in an analysis.
In September, both Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted Florida from likely Republican to lean.
On Thursday, Vice President JD Vance visited Lakeland in an attempt to gin up Republican enthusiasm and boost Donalds’ chances.
The proposed amendment, placed on the ballot by Republicans who control the Florida Legislature, would reduce property taxes for owner-occupied homes and condominiums.
It would lead to reductions in property taxes for them and, opponents warn, tax increases for other property, fee increases or reductions in local government services.
Recent statewide polling shows the amendment falling short of the 60% required for passage.
In Broward, 53% of voters surveyed support the amendment, far short of 60%, but notable in the Democratic blue county.
Another 20% are opposed and 27% undecided or didn’t answer.
The poll found 55% of homeowners support the amendment. So do 49% of renters, even though they wouldn’t see benefits and could see higher rents if landlords pass the cost of any potential higher taxes to their tenants.
Among other groups the referendum is supported by 44% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans and 51% of no-party affiliation/independent voters.
There is a significant gender gap, with 61% of men and 46% of women supporting the proposal.
Democrats (31%), women (36%) and renters (30%) had the highest shares of undecided voters.
Warnings about funding cuts for local services that could result if the referendum passes have an effect on support, the pollsters found.
The question told respondents that the proposed amendment would eliminate or severely reduce services, including the Children’s Services Council, hospital districts, water management district and parks and recreation.
After hearing a message with a warning about funding cuts, 46% said they were less likely to vote yes. Another 27% said they were more likely to vote yes. It made no difference to 14% of voters and 13% didn’t know or didn’t answer.
Democrats and independents move away from their support when told about potential funding cuts. Republicans by contrast are somewhat more likely to vote for the proposal after hearing the warnings, with 41% saying more likely and 34% less likely.
Support also erodes when voters are told the amendment “would shift decisions about local budgets and local services from officials elected here in Broward County to state officials in Tallahassee whom Broward voters do not elect and cannot vote out of office.”
The warning about control shifting to Tallahassee concerns 81% of Democrats, 62% of Republicans and 66% of no-party affiliation/independent voters.
“Upon first blush, people see tax cut and think that’s good, and when they get additional information it gives them pause. So how much people know when they go into the ballot box will be determinative,” Williams said. “It’s not until they see some of the other details that they realize it might not be as good as it sounds.”
The poll of 918 registered Broward County voters was conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International. Fernand Amandi, principal at the firm, is an adviser to the Jolly campaign.
The poll, which used live callers for interviews by phone and online surveys distributed by text message, was conducted Sept. 22-27 in English and Spanish.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans and Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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