THERE is an unusual character in the early polling for the 2028 presidential election: a candidate who says she is not running.
Leni Robredo has said she does not intend to seek national office in 2028. Instead, she expects to seek a second term as mayor of Naga City. Yet when pollsters ask Filipinos whom they would choose if the presidential election were held today, many continue to name her.
That is interesting in itself. But Robredo may not be the only number worth watching.
In OCTA Research’s first-quarter 2026 survey, Robredo received 21 percent in a 26-name presidential preference question, up from 8 percent in the previous quarter. Bam Aquino was at 4 percent.
In a separate head-to-head question, Robredo received 35 percent against Sara Duterte’s 46 percent, with 19 percent undecided. By the second quarter, the figures were 34 percent and 43 percent, respectively. The nine-point gap is notable, but it is not, by itself, proof of a decisive political shift.
Other surveys tell a similar broad story. WR Numero’s June survey put Robredo at 20.9 percent. Momentum’s July survey had her at 23.8 percent. Pulse Asia’s late-June/early-July survey placed her at 26 percent in a six-name field.
The figures are worth putting beside the 2022 election, but not treating as the same thing.
Robredo received 15,035,773 votes, or 27.94 percent, in that election. Some current hypothetical polling has placed her in roughly the same territory. But today’s surveys ask different questions, offer different candidate lists and measure opinion in a very different political environment.
The safer conclusion is simply that Robredo’s name continues to generate substantial support, even though she says she does not intend to run.
Then there is Bam Aquino.
His presidential preference numbers are modest: 2 percent in WR Numero’s November 2025 survey, 4 percent in OCTA’s first-quarter poll, and 2 percent in Momentum’s July survey.
But his actual electoral record is much stronger. Aquino received 20,971,899 votes and finished second in the 2025 Senate race. Pulse Asia’s May 2025 pre-election survey also placed him at 32.8 percent in its Senate preference question.
The distinction matters. Presidential preference, Senate preference and an actual election result are three different things.
OCTA’s second-quarter survey adds another data point: in a hypothetical president-vice president tandem question, Robredo and Aquino received 36 percent against 48 percent for Sara Duterte and Robin Padilla, with 16 percent undecided. The 12-point gap was the narrowest OCTA had recorded between the two tandems. Aquino, however, has said he will not run for vice president in 2028, so the pairing remains hypothetical.
Kiko Pangilinan provides another useful reminder that political support cannot be measured with one number.
His presidential preference was only 1.6 percent in WR Numero’s November 2025 survey and 1 percent in Momentum’s July poll. Yet Pangilinan received 15,343,229 votes and finished fifth in the 2025 Senate race.
A politician can therefore have substantial demonstrated support for one office without being a leading preference for another.
Taken together, these numbers raise a larger question: how much of the political constituency that emerged around Robredo in 2022 remains visible four years later?
It would be tempting to call this proof that the “Pink” or “Leni” coalition remains intact. The polling does not establish that. We do not have individual-level data showing that the same people moved from Robredo in 2022 to Aquino and Pangilinan in 2025, or that they would support the same candidates in 2028.
What we can say is more modest. Robredo remains a significant name in hypothetical presidential polling. Aquino demonstrated very large actual electoral support in the 2025 Senate race and appears with Robredo in OCTA’s hypothetical tandem question. Pangilinan also demonstrated a substantial national Senate vote.
That is enough to make the persistence of these political figures worth watching, without claiming that they constitute one permanent constituency.
There is another reason to be careful with the numbers: the question matters.
A poll asking respondents to choose among many presidential candidates is not the same as a head-to-head matchup. Neither is the same as a hypothetical tandem question, a Senate preference survey, or an actual election.
So the most useful habit when reading political polls is simple: look not only at the number but also at what voters were actually asked.
For now, we know that Robredo remains a significant hypothetical choice, despite saying she is not running. We know that Aquino and Pangilinan demonstrated substantial electoral support in the 2025 Senate race. And we know that Robredo and Aquino can still appear together in a hypothetical 2028 question.
What we do not know is whether these numbers represent one coherent political constituency.
For now, the numbers can raise that question.
They cannot answer it yet.
Bong Habana Ruado is a former public-sector official whose career has spanned government, politics, public policy, and the private sector. His current interests include public opinion research, governance data, and explanatory journalism, with a particular focus on interpreting political surveys beyond their headline numbers. He holds degrees in political science and law (Juris Doctor) and completed the Strategic Business Economics Program at the University of Asia and the Pacific.
