Ryan Tyson called the Florida Governor's race on a napkin. The public polls were not as close – Florida Politics
The best polling in Florida is the polling the public never sees. Campaigns and committees pay for it, and it is usually right.
The case in point this cycle is Ryan Tyson of The Tyson Group. On Election Day, Axios’ Marc Caputo told people who asked him who would win that if 1.3 million Republicans voted in person and turned out at a 2-to-1 rate over Democrats, Byron Donalds would win by about 100,000 votes. Tyson was his source.
Caputo posted the text Wednesday morning, time-stamped 12:13 p.m. on Election Day, with a photo of a napkin that had the math on it. By his count, 1.34 million Republicans voted on Election Day. Donalds won by 108,000. The napkin also had Ashley Moody winning by 3 to 4 points. She won by 2.9. “Tyson nailed it,” Caputo wrote.
I am sure other internal pollsters had numbers close to Tyson’s. His are the ones that ended up on a reporter’s feed next to the final count, so he gets the shout out.
Seven public polls against the real count
I went back through the public polling, starting with the New York Times/Siena survey that was in the field Oct. 19 to 25, and compared every statewide poll from that point forward with the results from the Division of Elections.
Donalds beat David Jolly 50.0% to 48.7%, about 108,000 votes out of 8.26 million cast. The closest public poll came from Political Matrix and The Listener Group, two divisions of Palafox Media Network in Palm Coast. They surveyed 500 likely voters Oct. 26-28 and had Donalds 40%, Jolly 39%, with 21% undecided. Among decided voters it was 51% to 49%.
St. Pete Polls surveyed 916 likely voters for Florida Politics Oct. 25-27 and had Donalds 48%, Jolly 46%. The Times/Siena poll of 813 likely voters had Donalds 48%, Jolly 44%. Research Co., a Vancouver firm, polled 450 Florida likely voters online Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 and had Donalds 51%, Jolly 47%.
ActiVote, which polls through its app, surveyed 400 likely voters Oct. 20-31 and had Donalds 52%, Jolly 48%. Stetson University‘s Center for Public Opinion Research was in the field Oct. 26-30 with 861 registered voters and had Donalds 51%, Jolly 45%. Targoz Market Research of Nashville surveyed 1,200 registered voters Oct. 26-29 and reported results among the 1,014 who had voted or were likely to vote. Targoz had Donalds 50%, Jolly 43%.
Moody beat Angie Nixon 50.9% to 48.0%. No-party candidate Neil Gillespie took 1.1%. St. Pete Polls and Stetson both had Moody up 4, at 49% to 45%. Times/Siena had her up 6, 50% to 44%.
Political Matrix had Moody 42%, Nixon 36%, with 22% undecided, which is 54% to 46% among decided voters. Research Co. had Moody 53%, Nixon 46%. Targoz had Moody 52%, Nixon 43%.
Two public polls tested the Attorney General race.
James Uthmeier beat Jose Javier Rodriguez 50.9% to 49.1%. Targoz had Uthmeier 49%, Rodriguez 46%. St. Pete Polls had Uthmeier 49%, Rodriguez 44%.
The same two polls tested Chief Financial Officer.
Blaise Ingoglia beat Annette Taddeo 50.9% to 49.1%. St. Pete Polls had Ingoglia 47%, Taddeo 43%. Targoz had Ingoglia 50%, Taddeo 41%.
Targoz was the only public poll to test Agriculture Commissioner. Wilton Simpson beat Joey Mendoza Atkins 51.1% to 48.9%. Targoz had Simpson 51%, Atkins 43%.
Amendment 3, the homestead exemption increase, passed with 62.0%. It needed 60%. Three public polls tested it, and none had it passing. Stetson had support at 53%, opposition at 28%, and 20% undecided. Among voters who had made up their minds, that is 65% yes.
St. Pete Polls had 44% support, 39% opposed, and 17% undecided. Take out the undecideds and it was 53% yes. Political Matrix had 33% support, 31% opposed, and 36% undecided, with the decided voters at 51% yes.
Every public poll had the Republican ahead in every race. Most had the Republican ahead by more than the final margin. Political Matrix came closest on Governor, and that poll had a fifth of its sample undecided. Florida’s public polls undershot Republicans in 2022 and 2024. This year they overshot.
One more shout out. Karen Cyphers and Sachs Media’s Breakthrough Research had Amendment 3 passing every time they polled it. “Truth is this: because of all the other polling (plus a faulty gut instinct that it wouldn’t hit 60+) I didn’t want to trust our numbers,” Cyphers told me. “But every poll we ran on Amendment 3 was between 60 and 65 straight through.” Their Amendment 2 polling was within 2 points of the 58% it got.
— Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises Media and is the publisher of FloridaPolitics.com, INFLUENCE Magazine, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Previous to his publishing efforts, Peter was a political consultant to dozens of congressional and state campaigns, as well as several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella. Follow Peter on Twitter @PeterSchorschFL.
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