Published
Sep 10, 2026 at 07:10 PM EDT
updated
Sep 10, 2026 at 10:23 PM EDT
Editor
Democrat David Jolly holds a narrow 3-point advantage over Republican Byron Donalds in a new poll of Florida’s governor’s race, as surveys paint a mixed picture with less than two months to go before the November midterm elections.
The Change Research poll, released Thursday, found Jolly with 47 percent support among likely voters and Donalds with 44 percent. The 3-point gap is about the same as the poll’s modeled margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Donalds and Jolly are competing to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, who will leave office after eight years at the helm of a state that has increasingly favored Republicans.
The race also puts a prominent ally of President Donald Trump on the ballot in the president’s adopted home state. Trump endorsed Donalds before the Republican primary, while DeSantis backed him after he secured the GOP nomination in August.
Trump carried Florida by more than 13 percentage points in 2024, after winning the state by about three points four years earlier. Democrats, meanwhile, have not won a Florida gubernatorial election since 1994.
A competitive race would therefore test Democrats’ ability to make inroads in a state where Republicans have strengthened their position in recent elections, while Donalds seeks to keep the governor’s mansion in GOP hands with the backing of both Trump and DeSantis.
Change Research surveyed 1,317 registered Florida voters from September 7 to 9, including 1,107 likely voters. The poll, commissioned by Freedom Project USA, found 9 percent of likely voters undecided.
Donalds took aim at Jolly during the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas on Wednesday, framing the governor’s race as a stark choice between the candidates.
“This election comes down to a choice: common sense versus crazy,” Donalds said. “I’m going to defend the Florida way of life, protect your wallet, and keep fighting for the principles that have made our state successful. Florida cannot afford David Jolly.”
Donalds also accused Jolly of having “completely surrendered to radical socialism.”
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Jolly served in Congress as a Republican before leaving the GOP in 2018 and joining the Democratic Party in 2025. He is the second consecutive former Republican nominated by Florida Democrats for governor.
Democrats nominated former Republican Governor Charlie Crist in 2022, when he lost to DeSantis by nearly 20 percentage points.
In his Democratic primary victory speech last month, Jolly invoked his Republican past while arguing for an end to political “culture wars.”
“As an old-school Republican, I talk about ending the culture wars not to celebrate some progressive platform,” Jolly said, “but because I still believe in the old-school Republican, libertarian policy that government should simply stay out of your life.”
Newsweek reached out to the Donalds and Jolly campaigns via email for comment on Thursday.
DeSantis introduced Donalds and other statewide Republican candidates at the Florida GOP Leadership Forum earlier this month as “our winning Republican ticket.”
“There is a strong contrast between our candidates and their candidates and I want to make sure that we do everything we can to keep this state free,” DeSantis said.
The broader polling picture remains mixed, although the two most recent surveys have shown Jolly narrowly ahead.
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A Hart Research Associates poll conducted August 10 to 13 found Jolly with 46 percent support and Donalds with 45 percent among 600 likely voters. The one-point difference was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association.
Earlier summer polling favored Donalds. A Targoz Market Research poll for the James Madison Institute conducted July 20 to 26 found Donalds leading Jolly by seven points, 45 percent to 38 percent, among 1,026 likely voters.
A University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll conducted July 8 to 17 also put Donalds ahead, 46 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 848 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Change Research has previously found Jolly ahead. Its May survey put Jolly at 46 percent and Donalds at 42 percent, a four-point advantage for the Democrat.
Other polls earlier in the year favored Donalds, including a Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research survey conducted from March 25 to April 13 that found him leading Jolly 47 percent to 40 percent.
The two most recent polls have shown Jolly narrowly ahead, while several earlier surveys favored Donalds.
Prediction markets, meanwhile, continue to favor Donalds despite the mixed polling.
As of Thursday, Kalshi’s Florida governor market put Donalds at 81 percent and Jolly at 21 percent, while Polymarket put Donalds at 82 percent and Jolly at 19 percent.
Prediction-market prices reflect traders’ expectations about an election outcome and are not measures of voter support.
Donalds and Jolly will face voters in the November 3 general election.
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