The Pennsylvania State Capitol Complex in Harrisburg is pictured Aug. 19. (Massoud Hossaini | TribLive)
In the early 1970s, a new word appeared in the English language. It came from the world of horse racing and was a betting term for correctly picking the first-, second- and third-place finishers — in the correct order. The word was trifecta.
This year, Democrats are placing bets on a different kind of trifecta: control of the Pennsylvania state House, Senate and governor’s office, a three-part punch they haven’t had in more than three decades. All they need to do to achieve it is flip three seats in the GOP-controlled state Senate.
And while successful horse betting can yield a windfall for the gambler, a Democratic trifecta would hand all Pennsylvanians a big loser’s bet.
For proof, we need only look at what Pennsylvanians have been saved from over the past decade because Democrats don’t hold a trifecta. This isn’t theoretical. These are actual policies proposed and pushed by Democrats that would be in effect now were it not for Republican lawmakers who control the state Senate saying, “Not on our watch.”
First, higher electricity costs. For six years, Democratic lawmakers and governors pushed for Pennsylvania’s entrance into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a multi-state energy tax program. The state’s nonpartisan Independent Fiscal Office estimated that joining RGGI would nearly quadruple electricity costs for Pennsylvanians. Quadruple!
The only reason Democrats abandoned their RGGI push is that Senate Republicans fought against this tax hike for six years. And ultimately, Democrats caved.
Were there a blue trifecta, RGGI would be in effect in Pennsylvania, and consumers’ electric bills would be dramatically higher.
Second, a reduction or complete elimination of school choice. Pennsylvania has dramatically expanded our popular school choice tax credit scholarship programs in recent years, serving more than 100,000 students despite opposition from Democratic lawmakers and hostility from Democratic governors.
Yet, Democratic state House members want educational opportunity to disappear in Pennsylvania. Democratic state Rep. Tarah Probst said as much this spring, admitting she and most other Democrats want Pennsylvania’s Educational Improvement Tax Credit Program to “go away.”
Gov. Josh Shapiro has given lip service to school choice, but he vetoed a school choice program in 2023 after campaigning in support for it. And he refuses to commit to opting Pennsylvania into the new federal tax credit scholarship program, which would benefit Pennsylvania children at no cost to taxpayers and zero impact on public education spending.
Without our Senate championing educational opportunity — in other words, with a Democratic trifecta — tens of thousands of Pennsylvania families would face at best a severe reduction in school choice and at worst a complete elimination of education alternatives.
Beyond bad policy proposals, a Democratic trifecta would deliver much deeper systemic destruction.
Consider that state-level election laws shape how ballots are cast, counted, accepted or rejected. Should late mail-in ballots be counted? Should ballots lacking required voter information be counted? These decisions influence not only state races, but federal races for U.S. House, Senate and the presidency. A Democratic trifecta could easily eliminate any safeguards in place and weaken confidence in our elections.
Then there is the rapidly approaching congressional redistricting that will occur after the 2030 census. Absent a Republican firewall, a Democratic trifecta could easily gerrymander Pennsylvania’s congressional map fully in favor of Democrats. In fact, a Democratic trifecta might not even wait for the census and instead gerrymander maps immediately. This could tip the balance of power in the U.S. House for years to come for purely partisan advantage.
The prize of a trifecta is why Democrats across the country are pouring tens of millions of dollars into Pennsylvania’s state legislative races. Whereas state House and Senate races once topped out at perhaps a few hundred thousand dollars at most, spending in competitive legislative seats across the commonwealth now regularly soars into the millions of dollars—per seat.
Midterm elections don’t typically garner as much voter engagement as presidential contests. But voters in Pennsylvania should take note of what’s truly at stake this November. It’s not simply a few House and Senate seats. It’s the future of our commonwealth — and our country.
Matthew J. Brouillette is president and CEO of Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs and the author of “You GOTTA win Pennsylvania! A call to entrepreneurs to save America.”
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