11 more seats shift toward Democrats, including 3 in safe red areas – Colorado Politics

Projections for 11 more House seats have shifted in favor of the Democratic Party, as talks of a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections have reached a crescendo.
The Cook Political Report shifted 11 races nationwide, including three traditionally GOP seats that went from solid Republican to likely Republican. Five more GOP seats went from likely Republican to lean Republican, according to the election forecaster. The development comes days after the Cook Political Report, which predicted in late September that Democrats would reclaim a majority in the lower chamber this year, shifted 18 additional House races blue.
On Friday, the forecaster projected that Florida’s 16th Congressional District, an open seat, Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District, held by Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-KS), and Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, held by Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE), would go from solid Republican to likely Republican.
Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, held by Rep. Brad Finstad (R-MN), New York’s 21st Congressional District, an open seat, Ohio’s 10th Congressional District, held by Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, held by Rep. Mike Carey (R-OH), and South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, also an open seat, all went from likely Republican to lean Republican.
Ohio’s 1st Congressional District went from lean Democrat to likely Democrat in favor of Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH). Florida’s 25th Congressional District went from toss-up to lean Democrat, favoring Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL). Montana’s 1st Congressional District, an open seat, went from lean Republican to a toss-up.
Cook’s U.S. House editor Erin Covey noted that Democrats appear to be competitive in seats that voted for former President Barack Obama, but swung toward President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Democrats currently hold 215 House seats and need a net gain of just three seats to secure a majority. Experts have suggested Democrats are in a prime spot to regain the majority in the midterm elections, as on average, the party in power, in this case the Republican Party, loses about 25 seats in the upper chamber during the off-year elections. Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Democrats a 90% chance of regaining the House, and a 62% chance of controlling the Senate.
Republicans on the campaign trail this year are particularly struggling to appeal to voters upset over high energy prices triggered by the Iran war. 
The low approval ratings for Trump have proven an issue for Republican candidates down the ballot. The political environment has Democrats sounding optimistic notes about the election, with Obama touting blue candidates’ performances in red areas like Texas, where James Talarico is giving GOP rival Ken Paxton a spirited challenge in the state’s U.S. Senate race.
“There are states right now in play that I would not have imagined being in play,” Obama said earlier this month. “If you had told me that the polling currently shows James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton — now, Paxton helps. And James is an outstanding candidate. But if you had told me that he was going to be up in the polls this late, I would have said, ‘Eh, I don’t think so.’”
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