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by AUSTIN DENEAN | The National News Desk
WASHINGTON (TNND) — Less than a month before Election Day, races for control of Congress are tightening as Democrats see opportunities to flip states in increasingly red-leaning places as Republicans try to hold onto their tight majorities.
President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail and spending large sums from his campaign war chest to boost Republicans that are facing a challenging political environment.
Recent polling has found consistent gains for Democrats across the country, driven by frustrations over high gas prices since the start of the war with Iran. Voters have grown more pessimistic about the state of the economy since the war started and have blamed Trump and congressional Republicans, giving Democrats openings in some places that seemed out of reach before the year.
While public sentiment is moving away from Republicans, many of the swing races are within the margin of error, meaning races will come down to the wire.
Key races and themes to watch:
TIGHTENING RACES IN RELIABLY RED AND BLUE PLACES
Both parties are facing tight races in places that have a favorable tilt.
Republicans have found themselves on defense in states Trump won by wide margins in 2024 with a growing list of Senate and governor races inching toward becoming toss-ups.
A slate of polls released over the last month have found Democrats ahead or even in Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, signaling potential trouble for the GOP’s hopes of retaining the chamber after November and prompting the party to unleash its massive fundraising advantage to help boost candidates in places that were considered safe. Trump has also hit the campaign trail with a series of stops planned in GOP-leaning states to boost turnout and keep Republicans in office.
Tightening races in GOP-leaning areas have shifted prospects for control of the Senate, which favored Republicans due the partisan breakdown of the seats up for grabs this year.
Democrats are facing similar issues in blue-leaning states despite the souring mood toward Republicans.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is locked in a tight race with former state Senate leader Troy Jackson, who took over the race after Graham Platner dropped out amid a series of scandals. Polling has generally favored Jackson, but some surveys have given Collins with slight leads or within the margin of error and she has a history of outperforming polling and national political dynamics despite the state’s blue tilt.
Democrats are also in a tight race in New Hampshire to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, where the party has dominated federal office elections for the last decade. Republicans have been optimistic about their odds of flipping the seat with former GOP Sen. John Sununu running close against Rep. Chris Pappas, who has warning national Democratic groups that the race will come down to the wire for months.
CLOSE RACES IN SWING STATES
The list of tight Senate races has expanded as Election Day has gotten closer, but the majority will still hinge on traditional swing states. Democrats need to hold all their seats and flip four that are currently held by Republicans to win control.
Republicans are hoping to flip Michigan’s Senate seat, currently held by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, with former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers running a tight race against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The seat is vital for Democrats’ chances of winning the chamber and is one of the few opportunities for a seat in a state without a heavy Republican tilt.
In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has opened a healthy lead over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley to replace the outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper has maintained a healthy polling lead over Whatley in recent weeks, prompting GOP groups to pull ad spending and divert resources elsewhere.
Incumbent Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is in a similar position to Cooper, holding a solid lead in a state that has seen Democratic gains over the last several election cycles.
HOUSE LEANING DEMOCRATIC
Most election forecasters see Democrats taking control of the House as the most likely outcome on Election Day, as they only need to flip a handful of seats to take the majority. With the national environment leaning toward Democrats on generic ballots by double digits in some polling, the next question is how big the majority will be after a slew of mid-decade redistricting creating more favorable districts for Republicans.
National Republican committees and super PACs aligned with the president have invested massive sums in recent weeks in swing races across the country as the party tries to overcome the political headwinds it is facing. Much of the recent spending is being reserved in districts Trump would have won by double digits in 2024, a signal Republicans are concerned about a midterm wipeout.
Forecasters have consistently been shifting House races toward Democrats in recent weeks as polling shows more enthusiasm among Democratic voters to turn out on Election Day while independents and leaners shift away from Republicans. While more races are expected to be competitive, only about two dozen districts are considered toss-ups due to partisan tilts in mapmaking.
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