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by AUSTIN DENEAN | The National News Desk
WASHINGTON (TNND) — A growing number of polls showing Democrats drawing closer or leading against Republicans in increasingly red-leaning seats ahead of the November midterms are raising questions about how large a potential “blue wave” might be.
Midterm elections are typically favorable to the party opposite the White House, creating a friendly environment for Democrats in the minority in the House and Seante. But mounting frustrations over the cost of living and an increasingly unpopular president and war with Iran have expanded the map of potential flips even further.
As Trump’s popularity has declined and gas prices been elevated for months, Democrats have seen gains in places Republicans have traditionally dominated, expanding the map of pick-up opportunities and causing unease for the GOP. Polls have found Democrats essentially even with Republican candidates in deep-red areas like Kansas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, fueling some optimism the party could flip the Senate after Nov. 3.
Election forecasters are widely expecting Democrats to retake the House, while the Senate has shifted from favoring Republicans earlier this year to a toss-up amid mounting evidence Democrats are gaining in red states. But the path to a Senate majority is still highly challenging.
In order to win control of the Senate, Democrats would need to flip two seats currently held by Republicans in states that Trump won by double digits in the 2024 election. While Democrats are still facing an uphill climb to achieve that, recent polling has found that may be within reach.
Democrats have seen gains in recent weeks in surveys asking voters which party they would prefer to control Congress, and a series of pollsters have found Americans are saying Democrats would do a better job managing the economy for the first time in a decade. Republicans have also reliably trailed in measures of voter enthusiasm ahead of Election Day.
The question is whether polling is overstating Democrats’ standing, particularly in places the party is facing significant brand troubles and limited history of winning statewide races.
Polls overestimated Democratic support in the last three presidential cycles but have been more accurate in midterm or off-year elections. An analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research found polls overstates Democratic margins by an average of 2.7% in 2024, 4.6% in 2020 and 3.1% in 2016. Polling misses were much smaller during the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
Getting accurate surveys has been a challenge for nonpartisan polling organizations and pollsters for both parties in recent years. It has gotten harder to capture Republican voters in samples, leading to results that can overstate Democratic support. Fewer polls are being conducted via phone, creating more potential for miscues in collecting samples. Pollsters also have to estimate who will actually cast a ballot and how undecideds and independents will break on Election Day, adding to possible misses.
Those challenges are especially prominent in heavily Republican states, where even small polling errors could make a seemingly tight race end up much different on Election Day. Most surveys that have given Democrats an edge have found the races around the margin of error, leaving considerable uncertainty about who is actually ahead.
“Modeling the likely voter is indeed very difficult because some people might not know until the week of or the day of if they're even going to show up to vote. If you're already a little frustrated with what's going on, or you feel as though neither party really speaks to your values, then the incentive to turn out is not real high for those voters, and yet those are the individuals that will determine the outcome at the margin,” said Rob Alexander, a political science professor at Bowling Green.
While Republicans may still hang onto seats that are surprisingly competitive given states’ partisan lean, the party is taking few chances, diverting resources across the country and sending high-profile leaders to stump for Republicans.
Trump’s Monday trip to Kansas is the latest in a series of visits to states that are typically firmly Republican territory. Since last month, Trump has made several trips to Texas, Ohio, and Iowa along with solo stops in deeply Republican territory like Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Montana. Other high-profile Republicans like Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson have also visited red-leaning states to raise money or rally for candidates.
“You don't have to do any polling to know that those races ought to be close. They're at least expected to be close by the parties, because you can tell by where they're spending their time and their energy and their resources and their money,” Alexander said. “They're not going to be there if they think that these are safe bets.”
Another signal the GOP is seeing potential trouble on the horizon is recent shift in political ad spending as party committees and aligned groups have shifted funds from swing seats to bolster vulnerable Senate candidates. Both parties have pulled back spending in North Carolina and Georgia as Democrats have held steady leads in polling and instead sent funds to places like Kansas and Texas where races are shaping up to be more competitive.
Democrats are also shifting resources and trying to expand fundraising efforts as they see the map expand in the House and Senate, with party leaders warning that the GOP’s financial advantage may prevent Democratic candidates from securing winnable races in a deteriorating environment for Republicans.
2026 Sinclair, Inc.
