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Tennessee Democrats may have an opportunity to make headway in the November gubernatorial election, if they can manage to capitalize on voters outside of their base.
Johanna Keohane is a Republican, and she was when she went to watch the Tennessee State Legislature conduct a special session in 2023, during which the Republican-controlled assembly was asked by Republican Gov. Bill Lee to address gun control after six students and faculty were killed at the Covenant School in Nashville.
She had heard Democrats complaining about the process in the legislature and didn’t believe her party could be as bad as she was hearing.
“I said, ‘I’m going to go this last day, and I’m going to prove that they’re wrong and complaining for no reason, and see for myself,’” Keohane told the Banner on Saturday. “I left that capital thinking that not that the Democrats were lying, but that they were not saying enough how bad the behavior was.”
Keohane saw the supermajority leadership disallow Democratic lawmakers from speaking and found the legislature unwelcoming to members of the public, which made her more skeptical of the lawmakers leading the state.
Since then, she and her twin sister, Meghan Keohane, an independent, have been coming to Nashville from Robertson County to attend meetings and become more politically engaged. As they’ve attended meetings, contacted lawmakers and paid closer attention, both women say they have become disenchanted with the current Republican Party.
That skepticism drove both to attend a campaign event on Saturday for Jerri Green, the Democratic nominee for governor.
After the rally, Johanna — the Republican who voted for Republican nominee Sen. Marsha Blackburn during her initial Senate campaign but not in 2024 — and Meghan — the independent who says she won’t vote third party at the risk of splitting the vote — are lining up behind Green, despite not identifying as Democrats.
“I’m still a Republican because the core tenets of the Republican Party are what I believe in,” Johanna said, naming small government, fiscal conservatism and upholding the Constitution as her priorities when voting. Concerns about ICE, data centers and Blackburn’s lack of accessibility also pushed both sisters to look outside of the Republican Party in this election.
But Johanna’s main concern with the party’s direction — which she believes started in the 1990s, continued through the Tea Party era and has become more popular under Donald Trump — is a lack of concern and resources for other people.
“The idea of a social safety net used to be the idea of the Republican Party. Yes, I want people to work and to earn a living, but we also need to make sure that we’re taking care of people,” Johanna said. “A country that doesn’t take care of the people that it can – that’s not a government, and that’s not a country, and that’s not a society.”
The Keohanes are not the only voters leaning away from the Republican Party. Across the country, Democrats have outperformed and repeatedly overtaken Republicans in state and Congressional races over the last two years.
Republicans have maintained a supermajority in Tennessee for nearly two decades, and Tennessee Democrats may at least partially close the gap this year, but only if they can scoop up those voters looking for an alternative to Blackburn or the MAGA conservative agenda she carries.
Blackburn is the clear favorite to win the gubernatorial election, and Green herself describes her campaign as David up against Goliath, in which Blackburn’s odds and cash flow represent the biblical giant, Green represents the underdog David, and organizers are the slingshot with which she hopes to win the unlikely victory in November.
Though dissatisfaction in the Republican Party may make Green’s long shot a little more attainable.
This spring, the Vanderbilt University Poll found that many voters in Tennessee were similarly cooling on the Trump brand of far-right conservatism currently leading the Republican Party.
In the May poll, President Donald Trump’s approval rate had fallen below 50 percent, despite the state’s deep red voting record, taking the biggest hit among non-MAGA Republicans and independents. At the same time, 58 percent of respondents said the country was moving in the wrong direction, and 88 percent said affordability was a concern.
While Blackburn won the party’s August primary by a comfortable margin, she also ultimately garnered less than half of her own party’s votes after banking on the appeal of the national conservative message.
Coupled with lower motivation in a seemingly secure general election in a non-presidential election year, Blackburn could see relatively low Republican motivation in the general.
But when asked about disenchanted Republican and Independent voters, a spokesperson for Blackburn’s campaign wrote off the idea of a Republican mass exodus and doubled down on broad conservative talking points.
“While it might make a nice narrative for liberals and their allies in the media, there is no data to back up the faulty theory that Jerri Green can win the Governor’s race by getting Republicans to cross over and vote for her,” campaign manager Abigail Sigler wrote. “Marsha is focused on bringing Tennesseans together around the conservative principles that have made our state so successful. We must remain united in standing against the Democrats’ radical, socialist agenda to protect our shared conservative values and make our state the standard-bearer for conservatism across the country.”
Though Meghan Keohane is an Independent and there are a slew of independent candidates on the ballot in November, she says she’ll vote for Green because she regrets voting for a third party in the 2016 presidential election, which helped Trump win his first election.
“It feels too dire, what the Republicans are doing, with the fascism and with Project 2025,” Meghan said, noting that she spoke to independent candidate Lauren Pinkston, who she likes, but says she landed on supporting Green.
However, for any potential Republican weaknesses to come through in results, Democrats would have to manage to convert the discontent Republican and independent voters, and drive significant voter turnout, neither of which the party has managed to master in recent years.
A spokesperson for the Democratic Party said Blackburn is “out of touch” and will naturally drive voters to look for a different candidate.
“Tennesseans of all backgrounds and political ideologies are fed up and ready for a change,” Luis Mata, Communications and Deputy Executive Director of the Tennessee Democratic Party, said in a written statement. “Jerri Green understands what families in every corner of this state are going through because she’s spent her career showing up and listening.”
Asked how the party was addressing Blackburn-averse independent and Republican voters, Mata outlined a general organizing plan, but gave few specifics on targeting that group in November.
“We have built one of the strongest organizing operations in TNDP history. Our Democratic candidates, from U.S. Senate to School Board, are actually talking to voters every single day, listening to and addressing the issues that matter most and how Democrats will deliver on making life better and more affordable for every family in Tennessee,” Mata said. “We know our message is resonating. We’re going everywhere, talking to everyone, and building the broad coalition necessary to win in November, regardless of who they are or how they’ve voted in the past.”
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You’ve read 3 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 4 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 10 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 9 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 8 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 7 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 6 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
You’ve read 5 articles this month. While you’re here, read as much as you want for free — we don’t have a paywall.
We’re rebuilding civic power in Tennessee. Won’t you join us?
The Nashville Banner believes democracy begins in our neighborhoods — and that journalism should help people understand, engage with and influence the systems that shape their lives. We’re on a mission to deliver local news that serves people from the sidewalk to the statehouse. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?
Prefer to make a one-time gift? Click here.
Sarah Grace Taylor is statehouse reporter for the Banner. A Nashville native, she spent several years covering local government in Tennessee, including at the Chattanooga Times Free Press, before moving to the West Coast where she covered city hall for The Seattle Times and California politics for POLITICO.
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by Sarah Grace Taylor, Nashville Banner
August 27, 2026
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