MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) – Polls and a national environment that some nonpartisan political analysts say favors Democrats have given Doug Jones’ supporters hope that he can become the first Democrat elected governor in Alabama in nearly three decades.
A survey conducted for Gray Media Alabama – FOX10 News’ parent company – and the Alabama Daily News in mid-October gave Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville an 11-point lead, 51 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent still undecided. Some other surveys, such as a poll by Democratic consulting firm Chism Strategies showing Tuberville with a 3-point lead, suggest an even tighter race.
Thomas Shaw, director of the University of South Alabama Polling Group, said voter angst over the war in Iran and gas prices favors Democrats – even in Alabama. But he added that he is not convinced it will be enough to pull statewide Democratic candidates to victory.
“For Alabama, what it’s probably gonna mean is a lot tighter margins in the races here, where Democrats will do better, but probably in a lot of instances, still not carry the day,” he said.
But Shaw, who also is a political science professor at the university, said a strong showing by Jones – even if ultimately unsuccessful – could help drive turnout high enough to win some state legislative races and even the 2nd Congressional District contest between Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques.
“I think that definitely helps, yeah,” Shaw said. “Because having a strong candidate in there for the governor’s position is going to create more enthusiasm and get out the vote.”
The chairmen of the Mobile County Republican and Democratic parties both agree that the state’s third most populous county will play a big role in determining the next governor. But they disagree about how it will play out.
Jones carried Mobile County during his successful bid for the U.S. Senate in a special election in 2017. But he lost Mobile County – and re-election – to Tuberville in 2020.
Ben Harris, who leads the county’s Democratic Party, noted that more Mobile County voters participated in his party’s primary than in the Republican primary. That had not happened since 1994, according to county election records.
“That’s reflective of the energy that we’re feeling out there. … The energy that’s out there feels much more like 2017 than 2020,” he told FOX10 News. “And Doug Jones won the state in 2017. We feel like he’ll do that again.”
Mobile County Republican Chairman Stuart Lang said he is concerned about the primary turnout. He said Republicans will win in Mobile County and statewide as long as GOP voters do not just assume it’s a foregone conclusion.
“Complacency in this case, I think would be a real killer in the Republican Party,” he said. “I think the complacency of voters not participating that should participate would be a shift, and that’s the only way that shift would happen in this in this state, I believe.”
Harris said he believes that concerns over the war in Iran and high energy prices extend even into Alabama and Mobile County.
“The issues here are the same as they are nationally,” he said. “It costs too much to fill up your car to go to the grocery store, and it costs too much to buy the groceries when you get there.”
Lang said he is confident voters will stick with the GOP.
“We’re always confident that Mobile will stay red, and we aim to do that with our continuous fundraising and the party activities we have here in the county,” he said. “So we enjoy Mobile County as being a red county, and we anticipate it’ll stay that way in the near future.”
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